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Human Weather Forecasting in an Automation Era, Part 2: Lessons of Air France 447

August 26, 2022 by tornado Leave a Comment

This short series (go to Part 1) arises from the recently published paper, “The Evolving Role of Humans in Weather Prediction and Communication“. Please read the paper first.

The authors briefly mention the need for forecasters to avoid the temptation to get lazy and regurgitate increasingly accurate and complex postprocessed output. I’m so glad they did, agree fully, and would have hammered the point even harder. That temptation only will grow stronger as guidance gets better (but never perfect). To use an example from my workplace, perhaps in 2022 we’re arriving at the point that an outlook forecaster can draw probabilities around ensemble-based (2005 essay), ML-informed, calibrated, probabilistic severe guidance most of the time and be “good enough for government work.”

Yet we strive higher: excellence. That necessarily means understanding both the algorithms behind such output, and the meteorology of situations enough to know when and why it can go wrong, and adapting both forecast and communication thereof accordingly. How much of the improvement curve of models and output vs. human forecasters is due to human complacency, even if unconscious? By that, I mean flattening or even ramping down of effort put into situational understanding, through inattention and detachment (see Part 1).

It’s not only an effect of model improvement, but of degradation of human forecast thinking by a combination of procedurally forced distraction, lack of focused training on meteorological attentiveness, and also, to be brutally honest, culturally deteriorating work ethic. I don’t know how we resolve the latter, except to set positive examples for how, and why, effort matters.

As with all guidance, from the early primitive-equation barotropic models to ML-based output of today and tomorrow: they are tools, not crutches. Overdependence on them by forecasters, being lulled into a false sense of security by their marginally superior performance much of the time, that complacency causing atrophy of deep situational understanding, invites both job automation and something perhaps worse: missing an extreme and deadly outlier event of the sort most poorly sampled by ML training data.

Tools, not crutches! Air France 447 offers a frightening, real-world, mass-casualty example of this lesson, in another field. Were I reviewing the Stuart et al. AMS paper, I would have insisted on that example being included, to drive a subtly made point much more forcefully.

The human-effort plateau is hidden in the objective verification because the models are improving, so net “forecast verification” appears to improve even if forecasters generally just regurgitate guidance and move on ASAP to the next social-media blast-up. Misses of rare events get averaged out or smoothed away in bulk, so we still look misleadingly good in metrics that matter to bureaucrats. That’s masking a very important problem.

Skill isn’t where it should or could be, still, if human forecasters were as fully plugged into physical reasoning as their brain capacity allows. The human/model skill gap has shrunk, and continues to, only in part because of model improvements, but also, because of human complacency. Again, this won’t manifest in publicly advertised verification metrics, which will smooth out the problem and appear fine, since the model-human combination appears to be getting better. Appearances deceive!

The problem of excess human comfort with, and overreliance on, automation will manifest as one or more specific, deadly, “outlier” event forecasts, botched by adherence to and ignorance of suddenly flawed automated guidance: the meteorological equivalent of Air France 447. This will blow up on us as professionals when forecasters draw around calibrated-guidance lines 875 times with no problem, then on the 876th, mis-forecast some notorious, deadly, economically disastrous, rare event because “the guidance didn’t show it.”

That disaster will be masked in bulk forecast verification statistics, which shall be of little consolation to the grieving survivors.

Consider yourself warned, and learn and prepare accordingly as a forecaster!

More in forthcoming Part 3…

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: analysis, automation, communication, communication skills, education, ensemble forecasting, forecast uncertainty, forecaster, forecasting, meteorology, operational meteorology, science, severe storms, severe weather, understanding, weather

Human Weather Forecasting in an Automation Era, Part 1: Situational Understanding

August 25, 2022 by tornado Leave a Comment

This short series arises from the recently published paper, “The Evolving Role of Humans in Weather Prediction and Communication“. Please read that paper first, before proceeding.

Neil Stuart always has been a thought-provoking author and discussion partner at conferences, regarding the human role in forecasting—most certainly including communication of forecasts. He lead-authored this new article in Bulletin of the AMS that fortunately is not paywalled, and shouldn’t be, given its importance. [I posit that no published atmospheric science should be paywalled, but that’s another issue!]

Yes, automation, AI, misconceptions thereabouts, IDSS, and the continuing importance of humans in the process, are all covered—quite often in contexts that matter in a social response-based, “Was*ISsy” sense. Although I found a few minor omissions or deficiencies in my read of it, this is about as good of a review article on the topic as reasonably can be done, given the limited space allotted.

Let the discussion begin! As a highly experienced, scientific severe-storms forecaster who was not involved (none currently in my unit were, to my knowledge), I’ll have a few tidbits to add too. There are so many places to go with this. I hope we do. Such discussion matters. I’ll post few early thoughts in multiple parts here.

Whither human understanding of the meteorological situation involved in a forecast? The article heavily emphasizes evolving educational requirements, and rightly so. It also alludes to the need for continuing meteorological and situational understanding on the part of forecasters (which begins, but does not end, in university education). The atmosphere offers continuing education, in its own language, throughout our careers as forecasters. It is professionally incumbent upon us to use observational data to read and understand the language of the atmosphere!

After all, regardless of how sophisticated the forecast models or post-processing are, we cannot optimally communicate a situation we do not deeply understand. Put another way, even the most eloquent and convincing communication of an unknowingly bad forecast, or incomplete understanding of the scenario, invites potentially tragic and economically costly consequences. Or as a colleague once put it, “You can spray-paint a turd gold, and it’s still a smelly turd.”

That means human diagnosis, by all available means (including hand analysis), still is important, and will remain so. Detailed, immersive situational diagnosis (subjective chart analyses, satellite imagery, radar imagery, soundings, radar-derived wind profiles, objective analyses, observational data of all available types) is absolutely foundational to every forecast scenario, but especially short-fused, multivariate, and high-impact ones, such as severe local storms and winter storms. Optimally thorough diagnosis is necessarily time-consuming and demanding of undistracted concentration in an operational setting. I’m glad the authors recognized and noted the importance of expert roles in forecast teams, and of fully attentive acuity. Institutionally, across public and private operations, we must reduce, not increase, distractions and disruptions to concentration on the forecast floor!

Given all the above, it is crucial for university and professional continuing education to maintain emphasis on meteorological situational understanding as the fundamental core of all forecasting and IDSS, and not lose sight of fundamentals in the zeal to embrace ever-more precise and prettier output. The safety of those who we serve with the forecasts is at stake!

More in forthcoming Part 2 and Part 3…

Filed Under: Weather Tagged With: analysis, communication, communication skills, education, forecasting, meteorology, operational meteorology, science, severe storms, severe weather, understanding, weather

Scattershooting 210901

September 1, 2021 by tornado Leave a Comment

Scattershooting while wondering why “trust the science” from the left to often abruptly ends at nuclear physics or fundamental human genetics…

…

THE ONE and ONLY BEST CO2 and ENERGY-INDEPENDENCE SOLUTION: NUCLEAR: An environmentalist makes a powerful case for nuclear and against so-called “renewables” to supply energy at big scale. There’s a decades-long tradition of unscientific, mathematically ignorant, irrational fear-mongering around nuclear. Never mind that nuclear is (by orders of magnitude!) the most energy-dense fuel source, with the lowest carbon emission, the safest record of all U.S. energy sources (fewest human and wildlife casualties), the least land area used for the amount of energy generated, continual and reliable (unlike solar and wind), has the lowest lifetime total waste volume compared to all fossils/wind/solar, and so on. Truly, nuclear is the greenest of green energy. And the technology to generate more energy with still less waste on an even smaller footprint has improved hugely since currently operating plants were erected in the ’60s through ’80s. Even if the Utopia of fusion isn’t realized soon, nuclear still is the safest, most efficient steady energy source for us all. Only ignorant, petty NIMBY bullcrap, science illiteracy, anti-scientific and illogical fear-mongering, and massive bureaucratic red tape are stopping us from becoming truly energy independent, with the lowest carbon production per capita among all nations. The way there is nuclear. If it were announced tomorrow that a nuclear plant would be built right behind my property, I’d welcome it with bells on. Just tap me into the juice, nuke-man.

…

PUBLIC-CRISIS MESSAGING MATTERS: Yes, as a formally published scientist, I know science matters, and changes. I also know messaging is important. As I’ve said before, consistent and clear communications matter in a crisis! Pretend for a minute you’re in a pre-pandemic time machine. SARS and MERS already have happened from remarkably similar viruses, and other RNA viruses have been studied for decades, so much already is known about such viruses in science. You’re told a coronavirus pandemic one is coming and that this will occur. Then, officially…

Let’s deny masks work, tell people not to get them, then mandate masks, then not differentiate between medical grade n95 masks & cloth rags, then say children are fine, then mask only children for a bit while telling the vaccinated to carry on as before the pandemic, officially declare vaccines as the way to end the pandemic, say the vaccines only reduce disease severity and aren’t stopping the pandemic, then reimpose mask mandates on vaccinated people, and then through all this confusing (for most folks, from their perspective) flip-flopping, express incredulous surprise that trust in institutions and expertise is being lost. Can you put yourself in another’s shoes? Do you get this point at all? Of course “the science changes”! Duh. Saying that is a straw man. The sciences of virology, epidemiology and immunology, however, existed before this pandemic, and have not changed anywhere nearly as wildly as the messaging has.

…

FOLLY of CONFORMITY in LANGUAGE FADS: On a somewhat related note, I find it annoying that the “woke” politically correct feel like they have to stick their unwelcome and meddlesome noses into everybody’s business, much like the Puritanical small-town busybodies of days of yore, or over-officious homeowner’s-association pests who nitpick the most minute details of everybody else’s house and lawn in the neighborhood. Same mentality! In the pandemic, they forced spineless and overly compliant news organizations to stop saying “Wuhan” when that is factually where the virus originated, in support of an unproven, subjective perception that systemic racism was happening on massive scales against Asians because of that. Then the factually from India “Delta” variant came along, and media and citizens mindlessly comply without question. Factually, it is the Wuhan virus and the India variant, and that’s what I call them. Don’t like it? As I often say: your problem, not mine. I deal in facts, not what might offend some soft, coddled, overly sensitive, privileged, overwhelmingly white-leftist busybodies. Regurgitating the pre-scripted phrase isn’t an act of wisdom nor kindness nor tolerance, it’s instead the opposite: it’s an act of supine conformist submission to a preapproved set of opinions.

…

BIG-CORPORATE SUCKING UP to CHINA:

This refusal to even acknowledge Uighur torture and genocide is craven corporate pandering to red Commie China by Coca Cola, much as we’ve seen from many other big companies and the NBA. Their “human rights” people only care about human rights when it doesn’t impact the bottom line much (if at all). Arguable and disputed sociopolitical events in the U.S.? “Woke” to the core, sucking up to the max to that bizarre conformity cult. Actual mass imprisonments, torture, and genocide of Uighurs, long-standing oppression of Tibet, a stiflingly Orwellian mass-surveillance state, and increasingly brutal oppression in Hong Kong? Cowardly silence. China has these faceless corporate suits and ties bought, paid for and leashed like obedient lap dogs. This guy from Coke even looks like a sniveling, spineless bureaucratic weasel, and is playing that part well. He should be in the movies. He wouldn’t have to act.

…

RADICAL PUBLIC-SCHOOL BRAINWASHING OF MINOR CHILDREN: BUSTED! Whistleblowers, gadflies and undercover operatives are some of my very favorite and most respected people, as they are heroes of openness and justice, exposing nefarious, illegal and diabolical activity in many levels of governments and corporations. Public education is a level of government and absolutely should be subject to whistle-blowing activity and undercover reporting. Project Veritas did just that with video of a radical Marxist teacher in Natomas Unified School District near Sacramento, one Gabriel Gipes, who:

  • Placed Antifa flag and Mao poster on the wall of his classroom, and shamed a student who was uncomfortable about that
  • Like some of the Capitol insurrectionists on the opposite part of the spectrum, holds that violent overthrow of the U.S. government is a good thing
  • Assigned extra credit for students who attended extremist left-wing events
  • Promised he’s not the only teacher there inclined toward radicalizing students: “There are three other teachers in my department that I did my credential program with — and they’re rad. They’re great people. They’re definitely on the same page.”

    The superintendent confirmed this “teacher” would be fired. Why was he hired? This tells me the real agenda there is: “We’ll radicalize children to the extent we can get away with it, until the PR gets too intense.” According to freelance journalist Andy Ngo, the school-board meeting included these speakers:
  • A black mom who said her daughter was brainwashed in 13 days
  • A Hispanic dad whose daughter noted that on the first school day, Gipe told the pupils that he e would turn them into “revolutionaries.” That’s consistent with Veritas’ recording where he admitted: “I have 180 days to turn them [students] into revolutionaries … Scare the f*** out of them.”
  • A Muslim parent calling for a criminal investigation into this “teacher”.

    These left-wing “woke” cult radicals are badly overplaying their hand, causing a lot of quiet (and sometimes not so quiet) backlash among the very groups they purport to support: racial minorities (including Ngo, the black dad and Hispanic mom), Muslims, and homosexuals (including Ngo). These lunatics don’t realize this ultimately going to undermine their own cause, which will be so fun to watch. What’s not fun is the damage they do by poisoning young minds with their parasitic ideologies.

…

PEOPLE I DON’T UNDERSTAND: Those who deny there’s a pandemic, or call it a “plandemic” seriously. Those who think males (that’s people with the XY chromosomes, for the biologically ignorant) should be using my wife’s or daughter’s bathrooms (and if I see a dude trying to go into a restroom with my wife or daughter, he’s not going to succeed). Those who stormed the Capitol thinking they were “making America great again,” when they were just being ignorant, herd-mentality fools. Those who think if a dude wears lipstick and a dress, he’s not a dude anymore (like putting lipstick and a pink bow on a boar makes it a sow…suuuuuure). Christians who grovel at an abject, unrepentant sinner and bombastic heathen like Donald Trump. Christians who support abortion, sexual activity of any kind outside monogamous man-woman marriage, or critical race theory (as if Jesus cared about race). Sometimes it seems so many on both sides have lost their collective and individual minds, or at least a moral compass of right, wrong and common sense.

Did I offend people on both sides with this segment? I did? Good! Outstanding! Shows I’m doing something right. Namely, thinking for myself, independently of anybody’s marching orders but God’s. And that’s OK with me. Why? Because ultimately, I will be answering to no mortal human — just God. Nobody on Twitter, nobody on Facebook, and not you either. I wasn’t put here to win popularity contests or conform to the worldly fads, but to adhere to truth. Your judgment won’t matter…only His. If you understand where I’m coming from and are cool with that, great — you get it. If not, learn and grow. Become more truly “tolerant” and “inclusive”.

Filed Under: Scattershooting Tagged With: China, Christianity, communication, Donald Trump, educational system, extremism, green energy, independent thinking, intolerance, leftism, Marxism, nuclear energy, pandemic, science, tolerance

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Recent Posts

  • Scattershooting 230128
  • A Thanksgiving Message
  • Human Weather Forecasting in an Automation Era, Part 3: Garbage In, Garbage Out
  • Human Weather Forecasting in an Automation Era, Part 2: Lessons of Air France 447
  • Human Weather Forecasting in an Automation Era, Part 1: Situational Understanding

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- January 30, 2023, 3:38 am

@cschultzwx @TwisterKidMedia So many holds don’t get called. That looked quite familiar. I know this as a Cowboys/Micah Parsons fan.
h J R
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- January 30, 2023, 3:27 am

@TwisterKidMedia @sdantwx Worst officiating I’ve ever seen was in a college game too, and Andrew should know this one. https://t.co/pC5fTkFFrF
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@TwisterKidMedia @tempestchasing I still don’t understand fully WTH happened w/the “unheard whistle” clock debacle and play that wasn’t. That was bizarre.
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